Impacts of climate change on the geographical distribution of rare and endangered Cyatheaceae in China: a MaxEnt model-based prediction.

) with habitat fragmentation. Analysis of niche dynamics under future climate change indicates that this family exhibits a conservative response strategy. MESS analysis revealed climate anomaly zones significantly overlapping core habitats. Model extrapolation validated these patterns, identifying southern regions as conservation priorities. The findings suggest prioritizing conservation networks centered on climate refugia in central Taiwan, central Hainan, and southern China, coupled with microclimate management and germplasm conservation to safeguard this ancient family.