The Impact of Climate Change on the Spatial Distribution of Seven Meconopsis Species in China: A MaxEnt Model‐Based Predictive Analysis

Plant distribution correlates with climate change, especially in mountain flora. Using an optimized MaxEnt model and the latest WorldClim 2.1 bioclimatic data, this study identified the key environmental determinants of habitat suitability and projected the current and future distribution patterns of seven Meconopsis spp. in China under various climate change scenarios. Results reveal that the primary environmental variables shaping the distribution are isothermal (bio3), seasonal variation coefficient of temperature (bio4), and elevation. Seven taxa were concentrated in southwestern China, with suitable habitats encompassing 1.3% to 10.1% of the land area in China. Under future climate scenarios, M. lyrata is expected to experience a decline in habitat suitability, and other species showed mixed responses. Given the limited extent of suitable habitats for most Meconopsis species in China, ex‐situ conservation—particularly through initiatives spearheaded by national botanical research institutions—should prioritize domestication and conservation efforts to safeguard genetic diversity.