Optimized MaxEnt Modeling for Habitat Suitability of Clematis tenuifolia on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau: Implications for Conservation Under Climate Change

Abstract This study predicts the current and future potential distribution of Clematis tenuifolia in China using the MaxEnt model, optimized via the ENMeval package. Environmental predictors included climate, soil characteristics, and anthropogenic influences. The model demonstrated high predictive performance (AUC = 0.982). Currently, suitable habitats (~ 103.97 × 10⁴ km²) are primarily distributed across Tibet (Shigatse, Shannan, Lhasa, Nyingchi, Chamdo), western Sichuan, northwestern Yunnan, and Qinghai. Highly suitable areas (13.14%) are concentrated in southern Tibet and southwestern Sichuan. Under future climate scenarios (SSP126 to SSP585), the total suitable area is projected to decline by 29.78–44.26 × 10⁴ km² by the 2070s, with highly suitable areas shrinking by 5.10–9.08 × 10⁴ km². The SSP585 scenario predicts the most substantial losses. Habitat contraction is expected mainly in Ngari (Tibet), northern Yunnan, southern Qinghai, and northwestern Sichuan, with limited and fragmented expansions in southeastern Tibet. The habitat centroid is projected to shift southeastward by 35–77 km, stabilizing near the Bomi–Motuo region in Nyingchi. The findings highlight the species’ pronounced sensitivity to diurnal temperature range and seasonal fluctuations, suggesting that climate warming could pose a serious threat to its long-term survival. These results offer critical insights for biodiversity conservation and the strategic management of germplasm resources within Tibetan medicinal flora under future climate change.