Ionospheric Disturbances from the 2022 Hunga-Tonga Volcanic Eruption: Impacts on TEC Spatial Gradients and GNSS Positioning Accuracy Across the Japan Region

The Hunga-Tonga volcanic eruption on 15 January 2022, produced significant atmospheric and ionospheric disturbances that may degrade global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and precise point positioning (PPP) accuracy. Using data from the GEONET GNSS network and Soratena barometric pressure sensors across Japan, we analyzed the eruption’s effects through the gradient ionospheric index (GIX) and the rate of TEC index (ROTI) to characterize the propagation and effects of these disturbances on ionospheric total electron content (TEC) gradients. Our analysis identified two separate ionospheric disturbance events. The first event, coinciding with the arrival of atmospheric Lamb waves, was characterized by wave-like pressure anomalies, differential TEC (dTEC) fluctuations, and modest horizontal gradients of vertical TEC (VTEC). In contrast, the second, more pronounced disturbance was driven by equatorial plasma bubbles (EPBs), which generated severe ionospheric irregularities and large TEC gradients. Further analysis revealed that these two disturbances had markedly different impacts on GNSS positioning accuracy. The Lamb wave–induced disturbance mainly caused moderate TEC fluctuations with limited effects on positioning accuracy, and mid-latitude stations maintained both average and 95th percentile positioning (ppp,P95) errors below 0.1 m throughout the event. In contrast, the EPB-driven disturbance had a substantial impact on low-latitude regions, where the average horizontal PPP error peaked at 0.5 m and the horizontal and vertical ppp,P95 errors exceeded 1 m. Our findings reveal two episodes of spatial-gradient enhancement and successfully estimate the propagation speed and direction of the Lamb waves, supporting the potential application of ionospheric gradient monitoring in forecasting GNSS performance degradation.