Regional Trajectories of Household Energy Efficiency: Modeling for Policy Decision-Making in Post-War Ukraine

The article offers a methodological framework for the comprehensive assessment of regional convergence and divergence processes in household energy efficiency based on multifactor modeling. The purpose of developing this model is to support the adoption of substantiated managerial decisions that will contribute to the formation of a fair and effective energy transition policy in post-war Ukraine. The model is based on the adapted Cobb-Douglas function, which takes into account a wide range of factors (socio-economic, behavioral, climatic, technical, and others) that directly influence energy consumption levels in the residential sector. The proposed approach enables not only the identification of key determinants of household energy efficiency across different regions but also the detection of common dynamic patterns (attractors) that outline regional development trajectories, considering the potential for convergence as well as the risks of divergence in energy efficiency levels among regions. The practical significance of the model lies in its application for simulating various policy scenarios and corresponding managerial decisions. This facilitates the planning and evaluation of the effectiveness of targeted subsidy programs for energy efficiency measures for households and communal enterprises, the development of comprehensive energy modernization plans for the housing stock, and the assessment of the impact of climate change on energy consumption in the residential sector. Additionally, the model supports substantiating the feasibility of creating educational programs on energy saving and the rational use of resources for households. The results of the simulation analysis within the model have enabled the formulation of scientifically grounded recommendations to improve the efficiency and fairness of resource allocation in the household energy supply sector. This, in turn, will contribute to the adoption of strategically balanced and adaptive decisions at the regional level, ensuring a sustainable and equitable energy transition for Ukraine in the post-war period.