Debt, fertilizer mafias, and rising input costs: Structural barriers to farmer well-being in Punjab, Pakistan

This study examines how debt dependency, fertilizer cartels, and rising input costs affect farmer well-being in Punjab, the country’s primary food-producing region. A structured survey of 106 smallholder farmers, supported by descriptive statistics, cross-tabulations, and illustrative farmer narratives, reveals the depth of these constraints. Results show that nearly 69% of farmers strongly agreed that debt cycles reduce their household income, while 70% identified fertilizer mafias as a major source of exploitation. Rising seed prices (78%), diesel costs (56%), and labor expenses (41%) were further reported as significant burdens. Coping strategies such as borrowing from informal lenders (58%), reducing input use (46%), and reliance on non-farm wage labor (42%) highlight reactive rather than transformative responses, often reinforcing vulnerability. The findings underscore a poverty–vulnerability trap in which structural dependency and market capture prevent resilience-building and accelerate youth disengagement from agriculture. Policy implications include stronger regulation of fertilizer and seed markets, improved access to affordable credit and insurance, cooperative models for input and output markets, and measures to offset rising energy costs. Addressing these barriers is essential to safeguard smallholder livelihoods and Pakistan’s broader food security.