Material-Dependent Temperature Modeling of Lunar Impact Flashes: Validation with NELIOTA Observations

Abstract This study adapts the three-equation model proposed by Stober and Jacobi (2008) to simulate lunar atmospheric conditions and estimate the temperatures of Lunar Impact Flashes (LIFs) generated by different classes of meteoroids. The methodology is applied to 55 LIFs documented by Avdellidou & Vaubaillon (2019), and the derived temperatures are found to be in strong agreement with the NELIOTA observational measurements. Recognizing the wide variability in meteoroid material properties—such as mechanical strength, porosity, and thermal conductivity—a three-regime modeling framework was developed, categorizing meteoroids as porous, stony, or iron-rich. Each regime addresses unique physical processes: rapid fragmentation in porous bodies, energy partitioning in stony meteoroids, and conduction-dominated behaviour in iron meteoroids. This differentiated approach effectively corrects the systematic errors introduced by traditional unified models. Validation against experimental data confirms the model’s improved predictive capability across all meteoroid types. By incorporating material-specific physics, this framework significantly enhances the accuracy of temperature estimations and offers a more reliable interpretation of lunar impact thermal phenomena. The explicit separation of material classes resolves long-standing discrepancies in peak temperature predictions, particularly for fragile cometary bodies and dense iron impactors.