A Regional Security Complex Account of the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands Conflict 以地区安全复合体理论解读钓鱼岛/尖阁诸岛冲突

This paper considers the recent conflict in the East China Sea between the People’s Republic of China and Japan over the Diaoyu/Senkaku Islands. An evaluation of the security dynamics through regional security complex theory, as developed by Barry Buzan and Ole Wæver, is undertaken. Regional security complex theory is defined, and the paper assesses the type of regional security subcomplex in Northeast Asia descriptively, and then analyzes the current territorial dispute within this framework. The potential for armed conflict is considered, and while there are many factors that could enable a war over these islands, a non‑violent solution is found to be most likely. Ten years after Buzan and Wæver’s assessment, this paper revises regional security complex theory’s analysis of the region. A lower-level structure in Asia, with singular Northeast, Southeast, and South Asian regional security complexes, and a higher-level structure, moving from an Asian to an Indo-Pacific supercomplex (that includes the United States of America), best captures the security dynamics of 2013 most aptly. 摘要：本文分析了中日两国近期围绕钓鱼岛/尖阁诸岛在东海发生的冲突，并利用Barry Buzan和Ole Wæver提出的地区安全复合体理论，对当前的安全动态进行了评价。本文对地区安全复合体理论进行了定义，并对东北亚地区次级安全复合体的类型进行了描述性的评价，之后在此框架内分析了当前的领土争端。本文还分析了爆发武装冲突的可能性；尽管有众多因素可能引起战争，但达成非暴力解决方案的可能性是最高的。在Buzan和Wæver提出理论十年之后，本文修正了地区安全复合体理论对该地区的分析。在亚洲地区，存在从东北亚到东南亚再到南亚的地区安全复合体低级结构；以及从亚洲到印度 - 太平洋超级复合体（包括美国）的高级结构，这样的结构最准确的描述了2013年的安全动态。