A Middle Power Between Appeasement and Limited Hard Balancing: The Philippines’ Strategic Dilemma in a Changing Indo-Pacific Region

During his six-year term, former President Benigno Aquino III challenged China’s expansive claim in the South China Sea. Current President Rodrigo Duterte has unraveled his predecessor’s balancing policy on China. His administration aims to appease China by distancing the Philippines from the United States of America and gravitating toward an emergent power determined to reconfigure Asia’s maritime territory. Nonetheless, recent developments such as the People’s Liberation Army Navy’s hostile moves against the Armed Forces of the Philippines units on Philippine-occupied islands in the South China Sea and the delays in the promised Chinese investments in the country have prompted the Duterte Administration to review the appeasement approach and to adopt a limited hard balancing policy. This move is reflected by the: 1) continuous Armed Forces of the Philippines modernization program; 2) stabilizing of security relations with the United States of America; and 3) fostering of security arrangements with Japan and Australia. In conclusion, this article contends that the Duterte Administration is at the crossroads, figuring out if the middle power will continue its appeasement approach or pursue a limited hard balancing policy on China.