A Novel Radiology-Adapted Logistic Model for Non-Invasive Risk Stratification of Pigmented Superficial Skin Lesions: A Methodological Pilot Study

Background: Pigmented superficial skin lesions pose a persistent diagnostic challenge due to overlapping clinical and dermoscopic appearances between benign and malignant entities. While histopathology remains the gold standard, there is growing interest in non-invasive imaging models that can preoperatively stratify malignancy risk. This methodological pilot study was designed to explore the feasibility and initial diagnostic performance of a novel radiology-adapted logistic regression approach. To develop and preliminarily evaluate a new logistic model integrating both structural (lesion size, depth) and vascular (Doppler patterns) ultrasonographic features for non-invasive risk stratification of pigmented superficial skin lesions. Material and Methods: In this prospective single-center pilot investigation, 44 patients underwent standardized high-frequency grayscale and Doppler ultrasound prior to excisional biopsy. Lesion size, depth, and vascularity patterns were systematically recorded. Three logistic regression models were constructed: (1) based on lesion size and depth, (2) based on vascularity patterns alone, and (3) combining all parameters. Model performance was assessed via ROC curve analysis. Intra-observer reliability was determined by repeated measurements on a random subset. Results: The lesion size and depth model yielded an AUC of 0.79, underscoring the role of structural features. The vascularity-only model showed an AUC of 0.76. The combined model demonstrated superior discriminative ability, with an AUC of approximately 0.85. Intra-observer analysis confirmed excellent repeatability (κ > 0.80; ICC > 0.85). Conclusions: This pilot study introduces a novel logistic framework that combines grayscale and Doppler ultrasound parameters to enhance non-invasive malignancy risk assessment in pigmented superficial skin lesions. These encouraging initial results warrant larger multicenter studies to validate and refine this promising approach.