Efficient Probabilistic Modelling of Corrosion Initiation in RC Structures Considering Non-Diffusive Barriers and Censored Data

This article presents a probabilistic methodology for assessing corrosion initiation in reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride ingress. The approach addresses key limitations of conventional analytical models by accounting for non-diffusive barriers and incorporating a rigorous statistical treatment of censored data to mitigate biases introduced by limited simulation durations. A combination of analytical solutions for diffusion from opposite sides with time-dependent boundary conditions is also proposed and validated. The probabilistic study includes the depassivation assessment of a hollow pier section. The blocking effect caused by rebars is statistically characterised through correction factors derived from finite element simulations. These factors are used to adjust analytical solutions, which are computationally inexpensive. Results show that neglecting the rebar blocking effect can overestimate the mean corrosion initiation time by up to 42%, while the use of censored data reduces bias in lifetime estimates. The observed frequency of censored events reached up to 20% when simulations were truncated at 100 years. The corrected analytical models closely match the finite element results, statistically validating their application. The case study indicates premature corrosion initiation (less than 10 years to achieve target reliability), underscoring the need to better reconcile the desired levels of reliability with realistic input parameters for depassivation.