Production Capacity and Temperature–Pressure Variation Laws in Depressurization Exploitation of Unconsolidated Hydrate Reservoir in Shenhu Sea Area

The Shenhu sea area is rich in unconsolidated hydrate reserves, but the formation mineral particles are small, the rock cementation is weak, and the coupling mechanism of hydrate phase change, fluid seepage, and formation deformation is complex, resulting in unclear productivity change law under depressurization exploitation. Therefore, a thermal–fluid–solid–chemical coupling model for natural gas hydrate depressurization exploitation in the Shenhu sea area was constructed to analyze the variation law of reservoir parameters and productivity. The results show that within 0–30 days, rapid near-well pressure drop (13.83→9.8 MPa, 36.37%) drives peak gas production (25,000 m3/d) via hydrate dissociation, with porosity (0.41→0.52) and permeability (75→100 mD) increasing. Within 30–60 days, slower pressure decline (9.8→8.6 MPa, 12.24%) and fines migration cause permeability fluctuations (120→90 mD), reducing gas production to 20,000 m3/d. Within 60–120 days, pressure stabilizes (~7.6 MPa) with residual hydrate saturation < 0.1, leading to stable low permeability (60 mD) and gas production (15,000 m3/d), with cumulative production reaching 2.2 × 106 m3. This study clarifies that productivity is governed by coupled “pressure-driven dissociation–heat limitation–fines migration” mechanisms, providing key insights for optimizing depressurization strategies (e.g., timed heat supplementation, anti-clogging measures) to enhance commercial viability of unconsolidated hydrate reservoirs.