The Ukrainian Conflict in Perspective: Are a Resolution and a Trump-Putin Agreement on the Horizon?

This paper examines the possibility of ending the Ukrainian conflict and explores how such a resolution might be achieved. The armed conflict between Russia and Ukraine has lasted for more than three years, stemming from a long-standing Ukrainian crisis. Over this period, most Western countries have supported Ukraine and imposed sanctions on Russia. The Trump administration shifted some of the basic principles of previous U.S. policy, aiming to find a compromise. Russia has achieved superiority and strategic successes in the conflict, creating the impression that the outcome will favor its interests. It is likely that part of the Russian-speaking southeastern region of Ukraine will remain under Russian control, and Kyiv will be required to commit to remaining outside NATO, along with other concessions. Leading EU powers currently oppose such an outcome and continue to support Ukraine's war efforts.