Scenario-based land-use modelling to predict land surface temperature in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia

The rise in Urban Heat Islands (UHIs) is increasingly posing environmental and public health challenges in arid megacities. This study investigates these phenomena by analyzing 35 years of Landsat satellite imagery (1990–2024) to quantify spatiotemporal changes in Land Surface Temperature (LST) and UHI in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. The research employs multiple spectral indices, including Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI), Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and Normalized Difference Bareness Index (NDBaI), and utilizes a statistic multiple linear regression model (R2 = 0.669) to understand their influence on LST. The results indicate that NDBI significantly positively increases LST, while NDVI and NDWI have a moderately negative impact and provide significant mitigation of heat/cooling effects. The authors also formulated a scenario-driven land-use model to predict the LST for 2034, aligning with Saudi Vision 2030, the 2034 FIFA World Cup, and other national initiatives, as well as the LST for 2044 in conjunction with planned land-use expansions. Without targeted mitigation strategies, peak-season land surface temperatures in densely populated areas could rise by up to 2.1 °C by 2034 and 2.8 °C by 2044. However, integrating additional green and blue infrastructure could potentially reduce warming by approximately 2.0 °C and 4.5 °C, respectively. These projections emphasize the necessity of addressing LST and UHIs in order to foster comfortable and sustainable urban environments which are in line with Saudi development objectives.