Decoding Urban Traffic Pollution: Insights on Trends, Patterns, and Meteorological Influences for Policy Action in Bucharest, Romania

Traffic-related pollutants remain a challenging global issue, with significant policy implications. Within the European Union, Romania has the highest yearly societal cost per capita due to air pollution, which kills 29,000 Romanians every year, whereas the health and economic costs are also significant. In this context, municipal authorities in the country, particularly in high-density areas, should place a strong focus on mitigating air pollution. In particular, the capital city, Bucharest, ranks among the most congested cities in the world while registering the highest pollution index in Romania, with traffic pollution responsible for two-thirds of its air pollution. Consequently, studies that assess and model pollution trends are paramount to inform local policy-making processes and assist pollution-mitigation efforts. In this paper, a generalized additive modeling (GAM) framework is employed to model hourly concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2), i.e., a relevant traffic-pollution proxy, at a busy urban traffic location in central Bucharest, Romania. All models are developed on a wide, fine-granularity dataset spanning January 2017–December 2022 and include extensive meteorological covariates. Model robustness is assured by switching between the generalized additive model (GAM) framework and the generalized additive mixed model (GAMM) framework when the residual autoregressive process needs to be specifically acknowledged. Results indicate that trend GAMs explain a large amount of the hourly variation in traffic pollution. Furthermore, meteorological factors contribute to increasing the models’ explanation power, with wind direction, relative humidity, and the interaction between wind speed and the atmospheric pressure emerging as important mitigators for NO2 concentrations in Bucharest. The results of this study can be valuable in assisting local authorities to take proactive measures for traffic pollution control in the capital city of Romania.