Production forecasting model reveals how fracture characteristics influence shale gas output, suggesting improved recovery strategies.
This study develops a production forecasting model for shale gas reservoirs. This model considers multiple fractal characteristics in the shale matrix and fractures, including pore size, tortuosity, and fracture length. The model couples multiple seepage mechanisms while considering the factor of gas adsorption. The characteristics of fractures are analyzed. Results indicate that critical factors, such as the angle between the fracture network’s dominant permeability direction and the horizontal well, the variability in fracture orientations, and the fractal dimension of fracture length, significantly impact shale gas productivity. Within a certain range, appropriately dispersion and complexity of fracture networks can effectively reduce gas flow resistance, enhance seepage efficiency, and thereby improve shale gas recovery. This study deeply analyzes how fracture characteristics affect gas seepage mechanisms and gas well production, offering a theoretical foundation for shale gas reservoir development plan design.
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Tan et al. (2025) studied this question.
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