Conceptual Principles of Forming Anti-Cyclical Policy of Construction Enterprises Based on Forecasting Economic Cyclicality

Introduction. The construction sector, which includes construction, the building materials industry and the real estate market, plays a critical role in the country's economy. It not only forms a significant share of GDP (on average 2-4%), but also contributes to the development of related industries through the multiplier effect. However, its high cyclicality, which exceeds the average fluctuations of the national economy, creates significant risks for enterprises. Most construction companies are unprepared for recession and depression phases, which increases the instability of the industry. Issues. The construction industry is particularly sensitive to economic cycles due to its dependence on the level of investment, government support, availability of credit and the general macroeconomic situation. Modern methods of cyclical forecasting often do not take into account the specifics of the construction sector, which leads to ineffective management decisions. The lack of adaptive mechanisms for anti-crisis regulation complicates the process of stabilizing the industry. Purpose. The research is aimed at developing the conceptual foundations of the anti-cyclical policy of construction enterprises, based on methods of forecasting economic cyclicality. The proposed approach will minimize the negative consequences of crisis phenomena and ensure the sustainable development of the industry. Materials and methods. The work uses economic and mathematical modeling, statistical analysis, econometric methods and time series analysis. The international experience of regulating the construction sector is studied and a comparative analysis of the effectiveness of various anti-cyclical strategies is conducted. Results. A methodology for forecasting economic cycles in the construction sector is proposed, based on the assessment of key macroeconomic indicators. The developed model allows enterprises to adapt their financial and production strategies in accordance with the phases of the economic cycle. Anti-cyclical mechanisms, such as financial diversification, investment optimization and strategic risk management, contribute to increasing the resilience of companies to economic shocks. Conclusions. The implementation of the proposed concept will help reduce the impact of economic instability on the construction sector, increase the adaptability of enterprises and strengthen their competitiveness. Further research should be directed at the integration of state regulation and corporate risk management strategies to create an effective anti-crisis management system in the construction industry.