Malbec viticultural zoning studies in Argentina based on the UCI bioclimatic index and bias-corrected CORDEX-CORE simulations

This study is the first to apply CORDEX-CORE simulations to analyze the climatic suitability for Malbec grape production (MGP) in Argentina, providing a foundation for future assessments under climate change scenarios. This zoning was evaluated through a Unique Combined Index (UCI) formed by four bioclimatic indices significantly related to MGP in Argentina(20): three bioclimatic indices evaluated during the growing season, mean temperature (GST), accumulated precipitation (GSP), and mean thermal amplitude (GSTA), and one evaluated during the maturation month, March minimum temperature (CN). The models' performance was evaluated through the mean values spatial representation of UCI, GST, GSP, GSTA and CN. The modeled results were compared with the observed ones, the latter being considered the closest representation to reality. The indices were calculated with the maximum, minimum and average monthly temperature and monthly precipitation. Variables were corrected by a quantile mapping method, giving rise to a magnitude reduction of precipitation’s overestimation and temperature’s underestimation over northern Patagonia and mountainous regions as well as precipitation’s underestimation and temperature’s overestimation over the central-eastern area of Argentina. Finally, it was concluded that the bias-corrected CORDEX-CORE simulations satisfactorily reproduce the main characteristics of the observed MGP zoning. This motivates their use for future MGP zoning studies in Argentina, potentially useful information for climate change adaptation studies.