Analysis shows the success probability of splitting attacks on blockchain, suggesting new recursive formulas for prediction.
The splitting attack is one of the most important attacks on the blockchain, first of all for Proof-of-Work and Proof-of-Stake consensus protocols. Currently, there are no explicit analytical formulas for evaluating its success probability, which causes some distrust in blockchain technologies. In this paper, for a simplified (but still not simple) model of a splitting attack, the recurrent formulas allowing the evaluation of the exact values of the probability that an attacker will be able to build a branch of a given length are obtained. The correctness of these formulas is verified through numerical examples using the Monte Carlo method by constructing estimates with a specified confidence level and relative error.
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Kovalchuk et al. (2025) studied this question.
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