Navigating the Path to Mathematics Success: Exploring Academic Performance and Exclusionary School Discipline Among Black Students

This study examines the predictive relationships among early mathematics and reading achievement, school discipline, and later mathematics performance for Black students. Using path analysis, we analyze a cohort of 36,668 Black students in Texas public schools from fourth to seventh grade. Findings reveal that fourth‐grade mathematics achievement is the strongest predictor of seventh‐grade mathematics performance, followed by reading achievement. Notably, school discipline negatively affects long‐term academic outcomes, with higher rates of exclusionary discipline linked to lower mathematics achievement. Additionally, students with stronger early mathematics skills were less likely to receive disciplinary infractions, suggesting a reciprocal relationship between academic success and behavioral outcomes. The analysis also reveals gender differences, with early mathematics achievement having a stronger influence on long‐term performance for Black boys, while reading achievement played a more significant role for Black girls. The study highlights the impact of exclusionary discipline, which disproportionately affects Black students by reducing instructional time and disrupting academic progress. Findings emphasize the need for early interventions that integrate asset‐based instructional practices, strengthen literacy and numeracy, and address discipline disparities. These insights inform educators and policymakers on reducing opportunity gaps and promoting equity in mathematics education.