Evolutionary Mechanisms and Prevention Strategies of Social Risks in Major Public Health Emergencies

Major public health emergencies are characterized by their hazardous nature, widespread impact, and interconnected effects. These events typically generate multi-faceted and cross-regional damages to socioeconomic systems and public welfare, potentially inducing multi-tiered systemic risks that may escalate into public crises. Building on the disaster lifecycle theory, this study employs a dual-risk analytical framework to distinguish between primary risks (direct consequences) and derivative risks (emerging from interactions between event-specific factors and external environments). Through systematic analysis of risk evolution patterns, we propose an integrated prevention system featuring: (1) a three-stage defense mechanism (identification-assessment-early warning) and (2) a comprehensive governance framework covering emergence, diffusion, outbreak, and recession phases. The research outcomes provide both theoretical insights and practical strategies for managing social risks in public health crises.