Characterization and Mapping of Conservation Hotspots for the Climate-Vulnerable Conifers Abies nephrolepis and Picea jezoensis in Northeast Asia

Abies nephrolepis and Picea jezoensis are native Pinaceae trees distributed in high mountainous regions of Northeast Asia (typically above ~1000 m a.s.l. on the Korean peninsula, northeastern China, Sakhalin, and the Russian Far East) and southern boreal forests, vulnerable to climate change and human disturbances, necessitating accurate habitat identification for effective conservation. While protected areas (PAs) are essential, merely expanding existing ones often fail to protect populations under human pressure and climate change. Using species distribution models with current and projected climate data, we mapped potential habitats across Northeast Asia. Spatial clustering analyses integrated with PA and land cover data helped identify optimal sites and priorities for new conservation areas. Ensemble species distribution models indicated extensive suitable habitats, especially in southern Sikhote-Alin, influenced by maritime-continental climates. Specific climate variables strongly affected habitat suitability for both species. The Kamchatka peninsula consistently emerged as an optimal habitat under future climate scenarios. Our study highlights essential environmental characteristics shaping the habitats of these species, reinforcing the importance of strategically enhancing existing PAs, and establishing new ones. These insights inform proactive conservation strategies for current and future challenges, by focusing on climate refugia and future habitat stability.