Which Factors Affect Online Video Views and Subscriptions? Reference-Dependent Consumer Preferences in the Social Media Market

In the attention-driven environment of online video platforms, understanding the factors that influence content selection and channel subscriptions is crucial for creators, marketers, and platform managers. This study investigates how thumbnails, view counts, video length, genre, and the number of advertisements affect user decision-making on YouTube. Grounded in random utility theory and reference-dependent preference theory, this study conducted a choice experiment with 525 respondents and employed a combined model of rank-ordered and binary logit methods to analyze viewing and subscription behaviors. The results indicate a significant preference for thumbnails with subtitles and shorter videos. Notably, we found evidence of reference-dependent effects, whereby a higher-than-expected number of ads decreased viewing probability, while a lower-than-expected number significantly increased subscription probability. This study advances our understanding of the factors that influence user behavior on social media, specifically in terms of viewing and subscribing, and empirically supports prospect theory in the online advertising market. Our findings offer both theoretical and practical insights into optimizing video content and monetization strategies in competitive social media markets.