Prediction of Shoreline Change in Pangandaran Coastline, West Java Province, Indonesia

This study focuses on analyzing shoreline changes along the Pangandaran coastline, located in West Java Province, Indonesia, by utilizing the Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS), a specialized extension developed for ArcGIS. The primary objective of this research is to investigate the patterns and rates of shoreline movement, specifically erosion and accretion over a ten-year period, from 2014 to 2024. By examining temporal and spatial shoreline data, the study seeks to assess how the coastline has evolved during this period and to project its potential future changes over the next 10 and 20 years. The DSAS tool was employed to calculate statistical rates of change, including Linear Regression Rate (LRR), End Point Rate (EPR), and Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), allowing for precise quantification of shoreline displacement across various segments. The analysis revealed considerable variability in shoreline dynamics across the Pangandaran coast. Several segments of the coastline experienced substantial erosion, with an average shoreline retreat of approximately 36.99 meters, corresponding to an erosion rate of about 3.7 meters per year. Conversely, other areas demonstrated shoreline advancement due to accretion, with an average increase of 34.39 meters and a corresponding accretion rate of 3.4 meters per year. This variation reflects the complex interplay between natural coastal processes, such as wave action and sediment transport, and anthropogenic influences like tourism development, infrastructure construction, and land use changes. These findings underscore the importance of developing adaptive and site-specific coastal management strategies. The predictive capability of DSAS proves highly beneficial in supporting proactive decision-making, risk reduction planning, and sustainable coastal development. Ultimately, this study contributes valuable data and insights that can guide local authorities, planners, and policymakers in managing and protecting the Pangandaran coastline amidst ongoing environmental and climatic changes.