Risk Assessment of Storm Surge Disasters in a Semi-Enclosed Bay Under the Influence of Cold Waves: A Case Study of Laizhou Bay, China

Laizhou Bay, a semi-enclosed bay, is prone to storm surges from cold waves due to its geographic and environmental characteristics. This study uses satellite data, in situ measurements, and the MIKE numerical model to analyze storm surges along Laizhou Bay’s coast under no-dike conditions. It examines the surges caused by cold waves with different intensities and directions. This study provides the storm surge disaster risk levels along Laizhou Bay’s coast. The results show that the maximum sustained wind speed during cold waves is distributed between the NW and NE. The NE wind direction causes the most severe storm surge along Laizhou Bay. Under NE-directed cold waves with level 12 wind, the maximum risk areas for Level III and IV are approximately 1341 km2 and 1294 km2, respectively. Dongying, Shouguang, and Hanting exhibit large Level I and II risk zones. The maximum seawater intrusion distance along the Kenli coast is about 41 km. The coastal segment from Kenli to Changyi is most severely affected by storm surges. It is recommended to effectively maintain and heighten seawalls along this segment to mitigate storm surge disasters caused by strong NE winds.