Indirect AI-Based Estimation of Cardiorespiratory Fitness from Daily Activities Using Wearables

Cardiorespiratory fitness is a predictor of long-term health, traditionally assessed through structured exercise protocols that require maximal effort and controlled laboratory conditions. These protocols, while clinically validated, are often inaccessible, physically demanding, and unsuitable for unsupervised monitoring. This study proposes a non-invasive, unsupervised alternative—predicting the heart rate a person would reach after completing the step test, using wearable data collected during natural daily activities. Ground truth post-exercise heart rate was obtained through the Queens College Step Test, which is a submaximal protocol widely used in fitness settings. Separately, wearable sensors recorded heart rate (HR), blood oxygen saturation, and motion data during a protocol of lifestyle tasks spanning a range of intensities. Two machine learning models were developed—a Human Activity Recognition (HAR) model that classified daily activities from inertial data with 96.93% accuracy, and a regression model that estimated post step test HR using motion features, physiological trends, and demographic context. The regression model achieved an average root mean squared error (RMSE) of 5.13 beats per minute (bpm) and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.37 bpm. These findings demonstrate the potential of test-free methods to estimate standardized test outcomes from daily activity data, offering an accessible pathway to infer cardiorespiratory fitness.