Validating Lava Tube Stability Through Finite Element Analysis of Real-Scene 3D Models

The structural stability of lava tubes is a critical factor for their potential use in lunar base construction. Previous studies could not reflect the details of lava tube boundaries and perform accurate mechanical analysis. To this end, this study proposes a robust method to construct a high-precision, real-scene 3D model based on ground lava tube point cloud data. By employing finite element analysis, this study investigated the impact of real-world cross-sectional geometry, particularly the aspect ratio, on structural stability under surface pressure simulating meteorite impacts. A high-precision 3D reconstruction was achieved using UAV-mounted LiDAR and SLAM-based positioning systems, enabling accurate geometric capture of lava tube profiles. The original point cloud data were processed to extract cross-sections, which were then classified by their aspect ratios for analysis. Experimental results confirmed that the aspect ratio is a significant factor in determining stability. Crucially, unlike the monotonic trends often suggested by idealized models, analysis of real-world geometries revealed that the greatest deformation and structural vulnerability occur in sections with an aspect ratio between 0.5 and 0.6. For small lava tubes buried 3 m deep, the ground pressure they can withstand does not exceed 6 GPa. This process helps identify areas with weaker load-bearing capacity. The analysis demonstrated that a realistic 3D modeling approach provides a more accurate and reliable assessment of lava tube stability. This framework is vital for future evaluations of lunar lava tubes as safe habitats and highlights that complex, real-world geometry can lead to non-intuitive structural weaknesses not predicted by simplified models.