Integration between corporate governance, tax management and jurimetry: a study on company valuation in environments of fiscal uncertainty

This article investigates the impacts of integrating corporate governance, tax governance, and jurimetrics on corporate valuation models in contexts marked by high fiscal uncertainty. The research was developed within the scope of the ProCiência 2025 Program, promoted by the Ânima Institute, and adopts a mixed methodological approach, combining a multidisciplinary theoretical review with empirical analysis of data from companies listed on the B3 stock exchange. The results demonstrate that the absence of effective mechanisms for incorporating tax legal risks into valuation models can result in significant overvaluation of corporate assets, with an estimated average impact of up to a 10% reduction in adjusted valuation. The application of jurimetric metrics, aimed at quantifying the probability of loss in tax disputes, proved effective in calibrating critical variables of the discounted cash flow model, such as the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) and projected cash flows. The study concludes that the convergence of governance instruments and quantitative legal forecasting tools contributes to more robust, transparent assessments that are aligned with the regulatory complexity of the Brazilian business environment. As a future agenda, we recommend further research exploring the relationship between legal-tax risk, economic-financial performance, tax planning strategies, and the application of data science to the legal field.