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This is a Statistical analysis study (also classified as: Comparative analysis, Forecasting analysis).

September 10, 2025Scientific HorizonsOpen Access

Trends in global grain and seed trade, Ukrainian position on the global market

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Analysis of grain market trends highlights Ukraine's changing role in global food supply, suggesting potential recovery post-war.

Global production reached 789.8 million tonnes of wheat and 1.22 billion tonnes of corn in 2023/24, indicating strong international supply.
Ukrainian crop area decreased from 15.4 million hectares in 2021 to 9.1-10.2 million hectares in 2024 due to war impacts.
Exports fell from 85 million tonnes in 2021/22 to between 46-50 million tonnes in 2022/23 before rebounding to 67.4 million tonnes in 2023/24.
Restoration costs of 29 billion USD post-war could allow Ukrainian grain exports to recover to 85-100 million tonnes annually, supporting global food security.

Панфилова et al. (2025) studied this question.

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