Assessment and Multi‐Scenario Prediction of the Impact of the Grain for Green Project on Carbon Storage of the Yellow River Basin, China

The Grain for Green Project (GFGP) has significantly changed the ecological environment of the Yellow River Basin (YRB), China. But the impact of different types of GFGP has not been studied in depth. Based on China's carbon target, this study constructed a systematic analysis framework of “ecological project, land use, and carbon storage,” evaluated and predicted the impact of GFGP on carbon storage (CS) in YRB under multiple scenarios. It was found that: (1) From 2000 to 2020, a total of 40,455.65 km 2 of GFGP was implemented in YRB. Returning farmland to forest, returning farmland to grass and planting on unused land accounted for 10.40%, 43.64%, and 45.96% respectively. There were also 13,914.01 km 2 (34.39%) of the implementation areas experienced re‐farming or land degradation; (2) GFGP increased CS per unit area of YRB by 1.69 t/hm 2 , avoiding a significant decline. Planting on unused land contributed the most to CS; (3) In 2030 and 2060, the increase planting scenario and increase de‐farming scenario will have the most CS, respectively. Returning farmland to forest will have a greater contribution to ecosystem long‐term stability; (4) YRB needs to strengthen the supervision and protection of forest and grass while GFGP adopt differentiated project implementation strategies in different regions. This study provides a theoretical basis for the follow‐up management and implementation of GFGP in YRB and also provides a scientific reference for the study of carbon response of ecological projects, which will contribute to sustainable land management and the realization of carbon targets.