Opportunities and risks of an Arctic key settlement: the Kemsko-Belomorskaya agglomeration

The main ground for the Arctic development remains the expansion of the export resource base and the appropriation of foreign trade rent through efficient logistics. Therefore, the prospects of the created Kemsko-Belomorskaya agglomeration as an Arctic key settlement are largely predetermined. Under the leadership of the Government of the Republic of Karelia and the VEB Corporation, a Master Plan has been developed to be a tool for a comprehensive assessment of the current state of the agglomeration, forecast and project proposals. The study objective: based on the analysis of the agglomeration development possibilities and the provisions of the Master Plan, to assess the risks and prospects of both an economic and social nature in the implementation of the Plan measures. The authors have identified geopolitical, economic, demographic, environmental, and institutional risks entailing financial and economic consequences, as well as consequences of social ecology. They have concluded that special attention due to be paid to the quality of life and reproduction of ethnic potential of the Russian Arctic.