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September 10, 2025AgricultureOpen Access

An Evaluation of Food Security and Grain Production Trends in the Arid Region of Northwest China (2000–2035)

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Projected grain self-sufficiency rates could fall between 79.6% and 84.1% by 2035, challenging regional food security.
Average annual growth in grain production was 3.5% from 2000 to 2020, with corn and wheat as dominant crops.
Research utilized the GM(1,1) model for forecasting based on a comprehensive assessment of water and soil resources.
Current trends in food production may not meet future demands, highlighting the need for proactive policy interventions.

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Observational analysis projects grain self-sufficiency challenges in Northwest China, indicating urgent policy needs.

Hao et al. (2025) studied this question.

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