Agroclimatic Assessment of Land Biological Productivity of the Dnipropetrovsk Region in the Conditions of Climate Change

The article considers the bioclimatic potential of the Dnipropetrovsk region in the context of modern climate change. Based on the physical and statistical model of D.I. Shashko, the bioclimatic potential (BCP) of the region for average long-term conditions (“base period”) is determined according to the Agroclimatic Handbook for the Dnipropetrovsk region: 1986-2005. A comparative analysis of its changes in the future (2021-2050) is presented in comparison with the baseline according to the climate scenarios of the representative concentration trajectory (Representative Concentration Pathways – RCP4.5 (medium) and RCP8.5 (hard). The studies have established that a significant decrease in the amount of precipitation in the warm period of the year and an increase in the cold period are expected, which will cause a decrease in the moisture index of Shashko and in the region for the period until 2050, arid and dry moisture conditions are expected against the background of the sums of temperatures for the warm period, close to the “base period” under the conditions of the implementation of these scenarios. The obtained BCP values in the “base period” characterize the average and moderately high conditions of the biological productivity of the climate. Under conditions of optimal moisture, the bioclimatic potential increases and characterizes the increased biological productivity of the climate. Under the implementation of the scenarios of the RSP family in both cases, a decrease in BCP is expected by 2050 Dnipropetrovsk region by 12-26% (under the RCP 4.5 scenario) and 17-34% (under the RCP 8.5 scenario) compared to the “base period” and will correspond to a reduced and very low biological productivity of the climate. Under conditions of optimal moisture, the bioclimatic potential also decreases. An assessment of the quality scores was obtained taking into account the type of main agricultural crops (cereals, sunflower, sugar beet) in the region both for the “base period” and under the conditions of the implementation of the RCP family of scenarios. In the “base period”, the highest quality score will be sunflower (145 points), followed by cereals (116 points) and in third place sugar beet - 66 points. It was established that under the conditions of the implementation of the RCP family of scenarios, a decrease in the number of points is expected by 2050, but the trend of their distribution by crops remains. Due to the increasing aridity of the region's climate, it is recommended to introduce drought-resistant varieties for sunflower and grain crops and irrigation during the critical growing season, especially for sugar beets, to increase productivity.