Analysis of the interrelationship between error dynamics and the overall risk level in the opera-tion of water treatment systems

Today, ensuring reliable and safe operation of water treatment systems that are part of critical infrastructure is one of the key tasks of environmental and technogenic safety. Despite the perfection of modern technologies, no complex engineering system operates in conditions of complete stability – constant variability of the parameters of the source water, fluctuations in the activity of reagents, inertia of processes and other factors lead to errors in the operation of individual functional units. These errors, even under normal operation, form deviations that can negatively affect the resulting quality of purified water. Their accumulation or underestimation of potential damage increases the risks of violating sanitary and technical standards and creates a threat to the environment. In order to study the scientific and methodological approach to the analysis of the relationship between the dynamics of errors in the functioning of water treatment systems and the formation of the overall risk level, the paper gradually analyzed errors in water treatment systems and their direct relationship with risks, the relationship with transfer functions and recovery time, and developed a mathematical apparatus for quantitative assessment and risk management. Analysis of the results obtained showed that the errors that arise at each technological stage are not isolated, but are summed up and transformed throughout the water treatment chain, which leads to the formation of the resulting error and directly affects the compliance of water quality with standards. It is established that the probability of exceeding critical water quality indicators directly depends on the resulting error, which, in turn, is a function of the standard deviations of the errors of individual blocks and the confidence coefficient (t). It has been proven that the scale of consequences is functionally dependent on the duration of the problem (Tproblem), which includes the detection time (Tdetection), the response time (Tresponse) and, most importantly, the restoration time (Trecovery) of the functionality of the water treatment system. The use of transfer functions in combination with the Laplace transform provides the possibility of dynamic modeling of the transmission and accumulation of errors in the time domain, as well as their impact on the parameters of the Tproblem. The developed integrated risk formula provides a mathematical apparatus for quantitative assessment and risk management, combining the statistical characteristics of the block errors and the operational parameters of the system's response to deviations.