A Study on the Improvement Pathways of Carbon Emission Efficiency in China from a Configurational Perspective Based on the Dynamic Qualitative Comparative Analysis

Improving carbon emission efficiency (CEE) is crucial for coordinating economic development and reducing carbon emissions. Drawing on panel data for 30 provinces in China from 2013 to 2022, this paper selects six key antecedent conditions guided by the Technology–Organization–Environment (TOE) framework. Then the dynamic qualitative comparative analysis (DQCA) is employed to explore CEE improvement pathways from a configurational perspective, and regression analysis is used to compare the driving effects of different pathways. The findings reveal that (1) single factors cannot independently achieve high CEE; instead, multiple factors must work synergistically to form various improvement pathways, including “technology–organization dual-driven”, “environment-dominated”, and “multi-equilibrium” pathways, with industrial structure upgrading as the core factor for improving CEE; (2) temporally, these improvement pathways demonstrate universality, while, spatially, they exhibit significant provincial heterogeneity; and (3) in terms of marginal effects, the “multi-equilibrium” pathway has the strongest driving effect on CEE. The findings provide valuable policy implications for developing targeted CEE enhancement strategies across provinces at different developmental stages.