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September 10, 2025PLoS ONEOpen Access

A dynamical systems analysis of criminal behavior using national longitudinal survey of youth data

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Dynamical systems model analyzes crime involvement and arrest patterns in youth, highlighting racial disparities.

Marginal increases in first-time arrests elevate long-run crime levels across all subgroups, suggesting systemic issues.
Long-run crime levels for Black men are particularly responsive to flows into crime and rehabilitation programs.
The dynamical systems model integrates racial disparities to explore macro-level crime involvement and policy implications.
Significant differences exist in desistance rates, with Black women showing higher likelihoods to desist compared to others.

McMillon et al. (2025) studied this question.

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