Efficient Swell Risk Prediction for Building Design Using a Domain-Guided Machine Learning Model

Expansive clays damage the foundations, slabs, and utilities of low- and mid-rise buildings, threatening daily operations and incurring billions of dollars in costs globally. This study pioneers a domain-informed machine learning framework, coupled with a collinearity-aware feature selection strategy, to predict soil swell potential solely from routine index properties. Following hard-limit filtering and Unified Soil Classification System (USCS) screening, 291 valid samples were extracted from a public dataset of 395 cases. A random forest benchmark model was developed using five correlated features, and a multicollinearity analysis, as indicated by the variance inflation factor, revealed exact linear dependence among the Atterberg limits. A parsimonious two-variable model, based solely on plasticity index (PI) and clay fraction (C), was retained. On an 80:20 stratified hold-out set, this simplified model reduced root mean square error (RMSE) from 9.0% to 6.8% and maximum residuals from 42% to 16%. Bootstrap analysis confirmed a median RMSE of 7.5% with stable 95% prediction intervals. Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) analysis revealed that PI accounted for approximately 75% of the model’s influence, highlighting the critical swell surge beyond PI ≈ 55%. This work introduces a rule-based cleaning pipeline and collinearity-aware feature selection to derive a robust, two-variable model balancing accuracy and interpretability, a lightweight, interpretable tool for foundation design, GIS zoning, and BIM workflows.