Analysis and forecasting of macroeconomic indicators of the development of the hotel and restaurant industry in Ukraine

The article deals with scientific approaches to the relation of hotel and restaurant business with the hospitality and tourism industry. The development of the hotel and restaurant industry (HRI) as a basic element of the hospitality industry in Ukraine over the past ten years is analyzed. The definition of the essence of the concept of "hospitality industry" and its structure is given, and the level of its development in the world economy is considered. The forecasts of scientists regarding the development of the global hospitality market in the near future are researched and the factors that determine this are analyzed. The trends in the development of the hotel and restaurant industry in Ukraine in modern conditions are revealed and summarized. The main macroeconomic indicators, the ones of the development of the hospitality industry are presented and their dynamics over the past 10 years is analyzed. It is shown that the volume of hotel and restaurant services accounts for a small percentage of Ukraine's GDP compared to the world indicator, and this is due to the low income level of the majority of Ukrainians, the global pandemic, and the beginning of the war in Ukraine. But despite the unfavorable conditions, a positive trend towards increasing in the proportion of individual entrepreneurs in the hotel and restaurant business entities has been observed. It is concluded that the HRI is very sensitive to the influence of external factors, such as the political and security situation in the country, as evidenced by a significant reduction in profitability in this area of activity compared to the average indicators in the economy. It has also been observed that the HRI is adaptive and recovers more quickly after each subsequent crisis. The forecast compiled during the research showed that even under the worst-case scenario, the volume of HRI services sold in the next 10 years will increase by 20 % compared to the current situation.