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Assessment of Indian Summer Monsoon in Seasonal Hindcasts From Next‐Generation GFDL and IITM Models

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Assessment reveals 2%-16% improvement in ISMR predictions using GFDL and IITM models, highlighting critical SST teleconnections.

ISMR prediction skill improved by 2%-16% in GFDL and IITM models when compared to older models.
GFDL-SPEAR accurately represents the sea surface temperature mean state and its influence on rainfall.
MMCFSv2 shows better skill in capturing interannual variability of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation.
Significant decadal variability in ISMR prediction skill emphasizes the challenges in modeling ENSO relationships.

Suneeth et al. (2025) studied this question.

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