Crop Health Assessment from Predicted AGB and NPK Derived from UAV Spectral Indices and Machine Learning Techniques

Crop health assessment is essential for the early detection of nutrient deficiencies, diseases, and pests, allowing for timely interventions that optimize yield, reduce losses, and support sustainable agricultural practices. While traditional methods and satellite-based remote sensing offer broad scale monitoring, they often suffer from coarse spatial resolution, and insufficient precision at the plant level. These limitations hinder accurate and dynamic assessment of crop health, particularly for high-resolution applications such as nutrient diagnosis during different crop growth stages. This study addresses these gaps by leveraging high-resolution UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) imagery to monitor the health of paddy crops across multiple temporal stages. A novel methodology was implemented to assess the crop health condition from the predicted Above-Ground Biomass (AGB) and essential macro-nutrients (N, P, K) using vegetation indices derived from UAV imagery. Four machine learning models were used to predict these parameters based on field observed data, with Random Forest (RF) and XGBoost outperforming other algorithms, achieving high regression scores (AGB > 0.92, N > 0.96, P > 0.92, K > 0.97) and low prediction errors (AGB < 80 gm/m2, N < 0.11%, P < 0.007%, K < 0.08%). A significant contribution of this study lies in the development of decision-making rules based on threshold values of AGB and specific nutrient critical, optimum, and toxic levels for the paddy crop. These rules were used to derive crop health maps from the predicted AGB and NPK values. The resulting spatial health maps, generated using RF and XGBoost models with high classification accuracy (Kappa coefficient > 0.64), visualize intra-field variability, allowing for site-specific interventions. This research contributes significantly to precision agriculture by offering a robust, plant-level monitoring approach that supports timely, site-specific nutrient management and enhances sustainable crop production practices.