Analysis and prediction of disease burden of stroke and its subtypes in China from 1990 to 2040

In China, stroke burden remains severe as it is a major cause of mortality and disability. Detailed analyses across different subtypes will help optimize intervention strategies, enhance resource allocation efficiency, and ultimately reduce the overall disease burden. We conducted a descriptive analysis of the incidence, prevalence, mortality, disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) of stroke and its subtypes using data (1990-2021) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) database. A Joinpoint regression model was applied to quantitatively analyze the indicators and calculate the annual percentage change (APC) and average annual percentage change (AAPC). We applied the Bayesian age-period-cohort (BAPC) model to project trends for 2022-2040. Incidence of stroke increased by 100.64% from 1990 to 2021, with ischemic stroke (IS) exhibiting the largest increase (201.13%) among all the subtypes, and the incidence being consistently higher in males than in females. The YLL/YLD ratio for stroke and its subtypes has decreased, with the YLL/YLD ratio falling from 20.13 to 9.48 in 1990-2021, indicating an increase in non-fatal burden. After adjusting for age, the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) of stroke and its subtypes declined, except for IS. The age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR) for subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH) decreased significantly (APC: -15.31%; 2000-2004), with the largest reduction in the age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) also occurring during this period (APC: -14.22%). Furthermore, BAPC projections (2022-2040) indicate that stroke ASIRs in males will slightly decline but increase in females. Meanwhile, the ASIR of IS is expected to continue to rise. Overall, the ASMR and ASDR are projected to decline. Although China has made some progress in stroke prevention and control, several challenges remain. Controlling IS must be prioritized, especially due to the high stroke burden among males.