Epidemiological modeling study reveals rising ischemic stroke incidence alongside declining mortality in China through 2050, indicating aging is driving substantial disease burden.
Key Points
To evaluate age- and sex-specific trends in ischemic stroke burden in China from 1990 to 2021 and forecast patterns through 2050.
Extracted ischemic stroke incidence and mortality data in China from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
Calculated average annual percentage changes using joinpoint regression to identify historical temporal trends.
Forecasted burden to 2050 via ARIMA models integrating the Socio-demographic Index and aging metrics, supplemented by decomposition analysis.
From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate rose (AAPC: 0.97%, 95% CI 0.93–1.00) while the age-standardized mortality rate decreased (AAPC: −0.49%, 95% CI −0.75 to −0.23).
Between 2021 and 2050, incidence is projected to rise faster in females (AAPC: 1.04%, 95% CI 1.02–1.07) than males (AAPC: 0.56%, 95% CI 0.56–0.57), while overall mortality will decline more quickly (AAPC: −1.53%, 95% CI −1.56 to −1.51).
By 2050, incident cases will reach 3.68 million (95% UI 3.05–4.40) and deaths will reach 1.50 million (95% UI 1.27–1.76), with population aging accounting for 54.04% of incident cases and 73.2% of deaths.