Delineating Ecological Protection Policies in Qinghai Province, China: A Twenty-Year Spatiotemporal Evolutionary Grain Production Assessment

Analyzing the status of food production in Qinghai Province and exploring the nexus between its ecological conservation and food supply are of critical significance. This study systematically synthesizes the evolution of ecological protection policies in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2020 and delineates the spatiotemporal evolutionary patterns of grain production in Qinghai Province and their underpinning driving factors. The key findings are as follows. (1) From 2000 to 2020, the corpus of policies governing ecological governance measures in Qinghai Province exhibited a sustained growth trend, with management-oriented policies predominating. (2) The primary grain and meat-producing regions in Qinghai Province are predominantly clustered in the northeastern part, displaying a gradual intensification of concentration. From 2000 to 2020, grain production showed an upward trajectory in the northern region and a downward trend in the southern region, whereas meat production exhibited an ascending trend in both the northern and western regions. (3) Agricultural production conditions represent the principal drivers of grain and meat production in Qinghai Province. Specifically, two driving factors—common cultivated area and total power of agricultural machinery—have exerted significant positive effects on grain and meat production across over 30 counties. Ecological protection conditions have manifested heterogeneous effects across different regions of Qinghai Province; the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) has exerted a negative influence on grain and meat production in the eastern region while exerting a positive influence in the western region.