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Synapse
September 10, 2025Open Access

Peaks and pitfalls: Unwrapping four overlooked problems in multilevel modeling of cyclic trends and their circular solutions

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Authors

MHMohammadHossein Manuel HaqiqatkhahEHEllen L. Hamaker

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Overview

Empirical analysis reveals critical flaws in peak timing estimates for circadian rhythms, suggesting the need for circular statistics integration.

Key Points

  • Many individuals may not show a circadian cycle, highlighting the flaws in current multilevel modeling techniques.
  • Current estimation methods may result in inaccurate peak time estimates, with discrepancies of several hours.
  • Conventional correlation measures involving peak timings can become uninterpretable due to arbitrary assumptions.
  • Integrating circular statistics within a Bayesian framework allows for improved assessment of cycles and accurate peak estimates.

Cite This Study

Haqiqatkhah et al. (2025) studied this question.

synapsesocial.com/papers/68c1d98554b1d3bfb60fb56bhttps://doi.org/10.31234/osf.io/zue74_v1
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Also Consider

Synapse has enriched 5 closely related papers on similar clinical questions. Consider them for comparative context:

  1. 1Peaks and pitfalls: Unwrapping four overlooked problems in multilevel modeling of cyclic trends and their circular solutions2025
  2. 2Circadian cycles: A time-series approach2023 · 4 citations
  3. 3Modeling cyclic patterns using a two-stage hybrid Bayesian approach.2026
  4. 4Circumplex Models with Multivariate Time Series: An Idiographic Approach2023 · 1 citations
  5. 5Circular insights for rhythmic health: A Bayesian approach with stochastic diffusion for characterizing human physiological rhythms with applications to arrhythmia detection2025 · 3 citations