Research on the Relationship Between Carbon Emissions and Economic Growth in China Under the Environmental Kuznets Curve Theory

Context: The coordination between carbon emissions and economic growth is of great significance for actively and prudently promoting carbon peak and carbon neutrality. Objectives The paper takes Qinghai Province, an economically underdeveloped region in China, and Zhejiang Province, an economically developed region, as comparative cases. Starting from the environmental Kuznets curve theory, based on the decoupling model and factor decomposition method, it analyzes the EKC curve, decoupling trend, and driving factors of provincial carbon emissions and economic growth from 1997 to 2023. Results: Research has shown that the EKC curve in economically underdeveloped areas and developed areas do not conform to the traditional inverted U-shaped curve, both of which experience two inflection points. Developed areas have an N-shaped EKC curve, with inflection point years around 2007 and 2014, while economically underdeveloped areas have a weak inverted N-shaped EKC curve, with inflection point years around 1998 and 2013. Conclusions: The decoupling of carbon emissions in economically developed regions is shifting from expansion negative decoupling to strong decoupling and weak decoupling, while in economically underdeveloped areas, weak decoupling is the main trend. The energy structure and intensity effects have a significant promoting effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions in economically developed areas, while economic growth and energy structure effects have a negative effect on the decoupling of carbon emissions in economically underdeveloped areas.