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September 10, 2025Open Access

Dynamics of fixation probability in a population with fluctuating size

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Analysis reveals how fluctuations in population size affect fixation probability and temporal correlations in genetic hitchhiking.

Fluctuations in population size lead to significant changes in fixation probability over time.
At short and long times, fixation probability can be modeled without considering population size correlations.
The conditional Wright-Fisher process is neither stationary nor Gaussian, indicating complex dynamics.
Initial variance of the inverse population size increases linearly, showing a nuanced relationship with time.

Jain et al. (2025) studied this question.

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