Bandwagon or backlash? Examining the impact of Trump’s 2016 election on support for the West European far right

This project examines the impact of Donald Trump's 2016 election on support for far right parties in Western Europe. Trump and the West European far right share stylistic and substantive features and disproportionately mobilize similar sociodemographic groups relative to their traditional centre-right competitors. Though widely considered part of the same right-wing populist phenomenon, little research has addressed how Trump's unexpected 2016 election shaped expressions of support for European far right parties. Absent clear evidence, this project outlines possible bandwagon and backlash effects, whereby Trump's victory may have increased or decreased expressions of far right party support. Quasi-experimental evidence using data from the European Social Survey from the days and weeks around Trump's election provides clear evidence for an immediate backlash against the West European far right, especially among peripheral supporters. These results are only partially mediated by changes to underlying attitudes, suggesting a response shaped by reputational concerns. Trump's personal unpopularity in Western Europe – along with his public connections to the region's far right – increased the social stigma of expressing far right sympathies, while the shock and uncertainty generated by his election may also have temporarily depressed support for far right positions.