Assessment of the Impact of Macro Indicators on the Financial Security of Small Businesses Under Martial Law

The purpose of the study is to assess the impact of macro financial indicators on the financial security of small businesses in Ukraine and to develop an integral index to measure the level of financial stability of small businesses in wartime conditions. This involves a simultaneous analysis of the entrepreneurial and public dimensions of financial security, taking into account their interrelation and dynamics during 2018–2024. The article examines the financial security of small businesses and the public sector of Ukraine in martial law. The MSME_FSI indicator is proposed, built on the basis of the aggregation of six key financial indicators of small businesses during 2018–2024, by normalising data and averaging. Using the multiple regression method, the impact of macroeconomic factors on the resulting index was assessed. The modelling results confirmed the high degree of determination of the specified index by the specified macro indicators: growth in inflation and public debt statistically significantly reduce the level of financial security of small businesses. The most vulnerable year was 2022, when MSME_FSI fell sharply to a critical level of 0.16, reflecting the negative impact of a full-scale war. The findings emphasise the need for consolidated actions by public administration and business to maintain financial stability: macro-financial stabilization and effective support for small businesses are interdependent components of financial security at all levels.