Post‐Coup Sanctions and Thailand's Agricultural Trade

In 2014, a military junta seized power in Thailand, leading to an authoritarian regime. The political shift prompted the United States and the European Union to impose non‐trade sanctions on Thailand. This paper studies the impact of these sanctions on Thailand's agricultural exports, using a comprehensive panel dataset of nearly 27.7 million exporter–importer–product–year observations at the HS 4‐digit level from 2001 to 2019. Based on a gravity model framework, the analysis finds that the US sanctions result in a 20% decline in the aggregate exports of Thailand's agricultural products, while the EU sanctions have no impact. The declines are most pronounced in fish and processed vegetables, whereas rice, Thailand's primary agricultural export with a significant global market share, remains unaffected. This study sheds light on the economic implications of non‐trade sanctions on international trade, offering valuable insights into the intersection of trade and geopolitics.