Multimodal Evaluation of Arrhythmogenic Substrate Predicts Atrial Fibrosis and Atrial Fibrillation Recurrence After Catheter Ablation

Background/Objectives: For many years, catheter ablation (CA) has been a cornerstone in atrial fibrillation (AF) rhythm control therapy; however, recurrence remains common. Multiple parameters have been proposed to quantify AF arrhythmogenic substrate, yet reliable predictors of long-term outcomes are lacking. To assess the value of non-invasive amplified P-wave duration (PWD), echocardiographic parameters, biomarkers, and electroanatomical mapping (EAM) were used in predicting left atrial (LA) fibrosis and arrhythmia recurrence after CA. Methods: We included 196 patients undergoing first CA for paroxysmal or persistent AF. Amplified 12-lead ECG PWD parameters [Pmax, Pmin and left atrial P-wave (LAP)], echocardiographic parameters, and biomarkers were assessed pre-procedure. We measured low-voltage areas (LVA, 0.2–0.5 mV) on high-density voltage EAM during sinus rhythm as a surrogate of fibrosis. Freedom from arrhythmia was evaluated at 6 and 12 months. Results: Patients with LVA on EAM had prolonged Pmax (148 vs. 135 ms, p < 0.0001), Pmin (111 vs. 101.5 ms, p = 0.0001), LAP (73.5 vs. 55.5 ms, p < 0.0001), larger LA diameter (p = 0.0002), area (p = 0.0365) and volume (p = 0.004), higher E/E’ (p = 0.0007) and E/A ratios (p = 0.037), more mitral regurgitation (p = 0.0315), and higher pro-BNP levels (p = 0.0094). Univariate analysis showed 12-month recurrence rates higher with greater Pmax, Pmin, LAP, LVA presence and extent; however, in multivariate analysis, only P-wave parameters remained independently associated with recurrence. Conclusions: Prolonged PWD parameters strongly reflect LA substrate (Pmax, Pmin) and independently predict post-ablation AF recurrence (Pmax, Pmin, and LAP). LA size, diastolic dysfunction, and mitral regurgitation were associated with LA fibrosis, while pro-BNP was associated with both fibrosis and arrhythmia recurrence. Integrating these simple, non-invasive markers into a multimodal assessment alongside EAM could improve pre-procedural risk stratification and guide individualized ablation strategies.